城市化进程中的耕地变化和驱动力研究——以廊坊市规划区为例

以廊坊市规划区为研究区域，利用MAPGIS软件对规划区现状图进行空间叠加，得到1996—2002年的转移矩阵，重点分析研究区耕地和居民点及工矿用地变化，同时结合数理统计软件Spass全面分析影响耕地变化的人文因素，试探性的用模型方法定量表达北京和天津的城市辐射作用。结果表明：耕地面积减少，居民点及工矿用地面积增加，其主要来源是耕地；非农经济、城市辐射以及人口因素是影响廊坊市规划区耕地变化的主要驱动因子；在研究区耕地变化和城市辐射存在很大相关性的基础上，通过定量方法分析得出北京和天津的城市辐射系数分别为12.6和7.9，进一步验证城市辐射对廊坊市规划区耕地有影响。

Study on the Change and Driving Forces of Cultivated land in Urbanization Process——A Case of the Plan District of Langfang

The paper takes the Plan District of Langfang for a study area. By using the software of MAPGIS, the author superposes the land use map in order to get the land-use change matrix during 1996-2002 and mainly analyzes the change of the cultivated land and the industrial-mining land in the Plan District of Langfang. With the Spass statistical software,the author analyzes the social driving forces for changing cultivated land with the data from the annual economy, and meanwhile tries to use the models to explain the cities radiation of Beijing and Tianjin. The main conclusions include: The land use changes are obvious reduction of cultivated land and the increase of industrial-mining land. The primary source of increase of the industrial-mining land is the cultivated land. The great social driving forces for changing cultivated land are non-agricultural economy,the radiation of cities and the population factor. By using the models in the paper,the calculating results of the modulus of Beijing and Tianjin are 12.6 and 7.9. That result is based on the relativity between the cultivated land and the radiation of cities. It shows that the radiation of cities of Beijing and Tianjin has effect on the cultivated land in the Plan District of Langfang. Beijing has a deeper effect to the cultivated land in the Plan District of Langfang than Tianjin.