基于VAR模型的能源消费结构优化与农业经济增长

为实现农业现代化,中国农业能源消费总量不断增加,其中煤炭和柴油消费占50%以上。农业生产依赖化石能源,已经对资源和环境产生负面影响。改善和优化农业能源消费结构,实现低碳、环保和可持续发展,是中国农业现代化发展的必然选择。文章基于VAR模型,使用1996—2016年中国农业能源消费和农业经济增长数据,分析了能源消费结构优化对农业经济增长的作用机理。在农业生产中,通过减少使用化石能源、增加使用清洁能源、优化能源消费结构,促进农业产出增长,实现可持续发展。

Optimization of energy consumption structure and agricultural economic growth based on VAR model

In order to realize agricultural modernization, the agricultural energy consumption in China is increasing. Among which, coal and diesel consumption account for more than 50%. Agricultural production relies on fossil energy, which has a negative impact on resources and the environment. Improving and optimizing the structure of agricultural energy consumption, to realize a low-carbon, environmental protection and sustainable development is an inevitable choice for agricultural modernization in China. Based on VAR model, using 1996-2016 agricultural energy consumption and agricultural economic growth data in China, the mechanism of energy consumption structure optimization on the agricultural economic growth is analysed: agricultural production, by reducing the use of fossil energy, increasing the use of clean energy, and optimizing energy consumption structure, is to promote agricultural output growth, and achieve sustainable development.