原油管道站场的量化风险评价

介绍了量化风险评价技术的基本流程、判定准则和评价模型,以实例讨论了其在原油管道站场的应用。根据站场的生产特点,设置泄漏场景;根据站场所在地区的气候资料,设定年平均风向、风速和大气稳定度等级的联合分布;伤害模型以热辐射和超压为主,以人员致死率为评价指标;采用荷兰应用科学研究院的评价软件RiskCurves计算站场对界区内各岗位和界区外居民场所造成的个人风险数值和社会风险F-N曲线。根据评价结果,从降低个人风险和社会风险两个方面,提出风险控制建议。最后,探讨了量化风险评价技术在油气管道站场的应用价值和尚待解决的问题。

Quantitative risk assessment in the station of crude oil pipeline

The paper introduces the basic procedure,judgment criteria and evaluation model of quantitative risk assessment technique,and discusses the application of quantitative risk assessment technique in the station of crude oil pipelines with some examples.For the station,the leakage scene is arranged based on the production characteristics,while the joint distribution of annual average wind direction,speed and atmospheric stability level are set up based on the climate data.The injury models are mainly thermal radiation and overpressure,which takes personnel lethality as evaluation index.the TNO evaluation software(RiskCurves) is applied to calculate the personal risk value and social risk F-N curve caused by stations,to the working posts in the boundary region and the resident places.Then,the evaluation results gives a risk control suggestion from the aspects of personal risk and social risk reduction.Finally,it discusses the application value and unsolved problems of quantitative risk assessment technique on the station of oil & gas pipelines.