长输天然气管道泄漏事故后果评价方法与应用

基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价法,提出了一种长输天然气管道泄漏事故后果影响的评估方法。将长输天然气管道的泄漏后果划分为安全后果、经济后果和环境后果3大层次11个影响因素,建立后果评价指标体系,在PHAST等后果模拟计算的基础上使用层次分析法求取权值,建立等级评价矩阵,确定事故后果的主要影响因素,采用模糊分析法确定最终事故后果严重度,从而完整评估泄漏事故的后果。经实例验证,此方法有重要的工程应用价值。

Evaluation method of leakage consequence for long-distance gas pipeline and its application

Based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods,an evaluation method for the consequence of long-distance gas pipeline leakage accident is proposed.Leakage consequence of long-distance gas transmission pipeline is divided into 11 effect factors in three levels of safety consequence,economic consequence and environmental consequence to build a consequence evaluation indicator system.The analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the weight on the basis of consequence analog calculation of PHAST and a level evaluation matrix is built to determine the main effect factors of accident consequence.The fuzzy analysis method is used to determine the severity of final accident consequence so as to make a full evaluation of consequence of leakage accident.A case proves that this method possesses a wide application field in gas pipeline.