Sustainable management regimes for Europe's forests — a projection with EFISCEN until 2050

In Europe, forest policy discussions are moving towards a European Union-wide strategy. This will further intensify the relations between European countries in the field of forests and forest management. European-wide forest planning and decision-making require that policy makers have insight into the long-term development of European forests under alternative regimes. The European Forest Information Scenario Model (EFISCEN) was used to make projections of the development of the European forests under four scenarios: (1) business as usual; (2) EFISCEN European timber trend studies (ETTS); (3) maximum sustainable production; and (4) multifunctional management. The simulations were carried out for 30 countries individually, i.e. harmonized scenarios were run, but the special circumstances and demands that play a role in each country were taken into account. The simulations covered 139.2 million ha increasing to 143 million ha in 2050. The initial year varied per country, but was mostly in the region of 1990. The average age of European forests was 57 years in 1990 with a mean growing stock of 142 m³ ha⁻¹. The results showed that the future European total fellings may vary between a stable amount of 400 million m³ year⁻¹ in the ‘business as usual’ scenario to 647 million m³ year⁻¹ in the ‘maximum sustainable production’ scenario. The other two scenarios incorporated a 9% gradual increase in fellings over the first 30 years of the simulation period (i.e. 0.3% year⁻¹). The average growing stock will rise to approximately 250 m³ ha⁻¹ in 2050, with the exception being the ‘maximum sustainable production’ scenario, in which the growing remains at approximately 137 m³ ha⁻¹. The average net annual increment remains at approximately 5 m³ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ throughout the simulation period, almost irrespective of the scenario. In the multifunctional scenario, special attention was paid to nature values by increasing the area of strict reserves from 4 million ha in 1990 to 12.3 million ha in 2050 (8.6% of the total forest area). The assumed increase in fellings of 0.3% year⁻¹ appeared possible in combination with this area of reserves. The simulations showed that growing stock development and increment development differed very much for each country separately per scenario. Therefore, the results show a strong need for maintaining the national diversity that constitutes European forestry within harmonized European-wide forest management strategies. In this article, we address what the consequences of each scenario are for wood production, biodiversity, and environmental functions of the forest. The results provide policy makers with a challenge on whether to intervene in the ongoing trend of build-up of growing stock and whether to choose for biodiversity, for increased use of domestically produced wood products, or a combination of these, but spatially separated.