山东省建设用地扩张与经济发展关系研究

基于山东省1995~2014年建设用地数量与经济发展水平的测度,采用计量经济软件EViews,运用平稳性检验、回归分析、协整检验、向量误差修正模型等计量方法,对其建设用地扩张与经济发展的相关关系进行研究。研究结果表明:(1)山东省建设用地面积(LnC)与经济发展(LnGDP)两个时间序列数据存在很强的相关性,相关系数高达0.997,经济每增长一个百分点,建设用地向外扩张0.639 1±0.056 1个百分点。(2)山东省经济发展与建设用地扩张之间存在协整关系,即长期均衡关系。经济发展是建设用地扩张的单向Granger原因。(3)山东省经济发展与建设用地扩张的相关关系具有全国平均水平的共性。经济发展对建设用地扩张的影响程度远高于江苏省1989~2007阶段研究值,土地利用集约度低于江苏省。各级政府应正确认识经济发展与建设用地扩张之间的关系,摒弃通过建设用地扩张推动经济发展的想法,优化产业结构,探讨立体开发节地模式及中小城市人口分流等,以利于未来城市空间拓展和经济可持续发展。

The Relationship between Construction Land Expansion and Economic Development in Shandong Province

Based on the measurement of the number of construction land and the level of economic development in Shandong Province from 1995 to 2014, the econometric software EViews is used to calculate the construction land expansion and economy by using the measurement method of stationary test, regression analysis, cointegration test and vector error correction model. The results show that:(1) There is a strong correlation between land use area (LnC) and economic development (LnGDP) in Shandong Province, the correlation coefficient is 0.997, and the construction land expands 0.6391 for every 1% 0.0561 percentage points. (2) There is a cointegration relationship between economic development and construction land expansion in Shandong Province. Economic development is the unidirectional Granger cause of construction land expansion. (3) Compared with the national and Jiangsu provinces, the correlation between the economic development and the expansion of construction land in Shandong Province has the commonality of the national average. The impact of economic development on the expansion of construction land is much higher than that of Jiangsu Province in 1989-2007, and the land use intensity is lower than Jiangsu Province. It is suggested that governments at all levels should correctly understand the relationship between economic development and construction land expansion, abandon the idea of promoting economic development through expansion of land for construction purposes, optimize the industrial structure, explore the pattern of three-dimensional development and the population diversion of small and medium-sized cities, so as to promote urban space expansion and sustainable economic development in the future.