我国天然气中长期消费水平的预测

随着我国加入WTO,天然气消费市场将在国际市场经济环境下发展,无论是制订天然气发展规划,签订天然气“照付不议”贸易合同,还是天然气上下游工程项目设计等工作,都需要确定中长期天然气市场的消费水平。准确预测中长期天然气消费水平,对于我国天然气工业的发展具有重要意义。分析了我国天然气消费市场的消费现状,发展趋势及其影响因素,介绍了用于天然气消费水平预测的趋势外推法、回归分析法、灰色预测法、情景分析法等预测方法,可为预测工作提供选用原则。

Forecast about Natural Gas Consumption Level in Medium-long Term of China

As China joints WTO,the natural gas (NG) consumption market of China will grow up in the international environment of market economy. Whether a NG program is worked out,a NG "take-or-pay" trade a-greement is made,or a NG engineering project in the upper course or lower course is designed,and so on,it is necessay and important to predict accurately the consumption level on the NG market in medium-long term. This paper analyzes the present situation of NG consumption,its developing trend and factors of effect upon it on the NG market of China,and it introduces the methods and their choice principles of trend inference method, regression analysis method, grey forecast method, scene analysis method for NG consumption level forecast.