| 杉木小径材木材价格趋势分析预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘祖军. 杉木小径材木材价格趋势分析预测[J]. 林业调查规划, 2007, 32(6): 33-36 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘祖军 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建农林大学林学院,福建,福州,350002 |
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| 摘 要： | 归纳了南平市19年来小径材杉木木材价格变动趋势.同时,依据三次指数平滑模型和灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型,分析了杉木小径材木材价格变动趋势.预测结果显示,今后杉木小径材木材总体价格趋势上涨,4～6 cm和8～12 cm的木材价格高峰期将出现在2012、2018和2010、2015年.
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| 关 键 词： | 杉木小径材 木材价格趋势 预测模型 三次指数平滑模型 灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-3168(2007)06-0033-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-09-12 |
Analysis and Predication on Timber Price Tendency of Small Caliber Chinese Fir |
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| LIU Zhu-jun. Analysis and Predication on Timber Price Tendency of Small Caliber Chinese Fir[J]. Forest Inventory and Planning, 2007, 32(6): 33-36 |
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| Authors: | LIU Zhu-jun |
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| Abstract: | The paper summarizes the price change trend of small caliber Chinese fir in Nanping city for recent 19 years.Meanwhile,it also analyzes the price trend according to grey-system theory GM(1,1) and smooth model SM2.As a result,the precisions of these two models' prediction are high.The predications reveal that the overall price trend will increase in the future,and the maximum prices of 4cm~6cm and 8cm~12cm timbers will appear in years of 2012 and 2018 as well as 2010 and 2015 respectively. |
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| Keywords: | small caliber Chinese fir tendency of timber price model for prediction smooth model SM2 grey-system theory GM(1 1) model |
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