A habitat model for brown bear conservation and land use planning in the central Apennines

We investigated the brown bear habitat suitability in an 8000 km² study area encompassing Abruzzo, Latium, and Molise regions in central-southern Italy. Based on long-term field surveys and published records, we classified bear habitat as occupied or unoccupied in 92 out of 320 sample squares (5 × 5 km). For each sample square 36 habitat variables were measured from topographic maps and Corine land-cover III level digital maps. The influence of habitat features on bear presence was investigated by multivariate and one-way analyses of variance and by logistic regression analysis. The logistic model correctly classified 95.5% of sample squares of bear presence and 93.8% of those where bears were absent. Average altitude, deciduous woodlands and ecotone length, showed a positive relationship with bear presence, whereas vineyard-olive groves and shrublands were negatively correlated with bear presence. No specific land management guidelines or strategies exist for bear conservation in central Italy, based on knowledge of habitat-population relationships. The landscape scale habitat model we developed could be useful to predict bear occurrence, to identify critical areas for a brown bear conservation strategy, and to enhance the arrangement of the protected areas network for the conservation of this species.