Wild-captive metapopulation viability analysis

We developed an interactive management model for wild and captive populations of the ploughshare tortoise or angonoka, Geochelone yniphora. Interactive management is based on the translocation of individuals between wild and captive populations to simulate a metapopulation. Demographic parameters of one captive and two wild populations of this rare tortoise were used to conduct a metapopulation viability analysis (MVA). The effectiveness of the conservation strategy proposed for this species was then evaluated by modifying the probability of extinction and growth of the metapopulation over a fixed period of time. Several alternative scenarios of interactive management were then tested and ranked in terms of their effect on the viability of the metapopulation. The model predicted that catastrophic events such as bush fires would likely have a negative effect on the future of remaining wild populations. However, the model also predicted that the use of captive-born offspring to establish additional wild populations would decrease the risk of extinction of the metapopulation as a whole. We believe that, when supported by sound knowledge of the demographic parameters of a species, the use of MVA as part of an interactive management program can be an effective conservation tool that allows assessment of the probable response of both captive and wild populations to different management alternatives. One of the most interesting aspects of this interactive management approach is the link between in situ and ex situ conservation.