| 降雨侵蚀力指数的时间序列分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 余新晓.降雨侵蚀力指数的时间序列分析[J].北京林业大学学报,1990,12(2):55-62. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余新晓 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京林业大学水土保持系 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文简要介绍了时间序列分析的数学模型和建模途径,对实际月降雨侵蚀力指数序列进行了平稳性、正态性和周期性检验,在样本相关函数和偏自相关函数计算的基础上,确定出了模型的形式和阶次,并估计出了模型参数值。对所得到的月降雨侵蚀力指数预报方程,用实际值进行了预报检验,其结果表明所建立的预报模型具有较高的精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 降雨侵蚀力指数 时间序列分析 自相关函数 偏自相关函数 |
Time Series Analysis of Rainfall Erosivity Index |
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| Yu Xinxiao.Time Series Analysis of Rainfall Erosivity Index[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,1990,12(2):55-62. |
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| Authors: | Yu Xinxiao |
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| Institution: | Department of Soil and Water Conservation |
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| Abstract: | This paper outlines the mathematical model of time series analysis and the method of model construction.The form of the model is ARIMA ( 1,1,0) An analytical model is proposed to predict the monthly rainfall erosivity index.The author conducted a model test which indicated that the analytical model is highly satisfactory. |
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| Keywords: | rainfall erosivity index time series analysis autocorrelation function partial correlation function |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
