Dynamics and management of Alaska boreal forest: An all-aged multi-species matrix growth model

Studies on the dynamics of Alaska boreal forest are sporadic and rare, and forest management in the region has been conducted in the absence of a useful growth model. This paper presents a matrix stand growth model to study the dynamics and management of Alaska's boreal forest, with harvests and artificial regeneration being accounted for. The model was calibrated with data from 446 constantly monitored permanent sample plots distributed across interior and south-central Alaska, and was tested to be accurate on an independent validation sample. The present model was applied on a most frequent commercial stand in interior Alaska to study a forest management regime that is being commonly used in the region. The simulation was for 300 years with a 40-year cutting cycle, and management outcomes under various permafrost levels and site elevations were investigated with sensitivity analysis. Despite the comparatively low financial returns, current management regime may generally benefit wildlife species by maintaining continuous forest cover and decent stand diversity, and properly managed forests had potential for timber production and wood-based energy. It was predicted by the model that both permafrost and site elevation had substantial impact on the management outcomes. Other variables being held constant at sample mean, net present value of harvests increased from $434 to $831 ha⁻¹ and the annual volume of harvest more than tripled from 1.68 to 5.75 m³ ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ as permafrost declined from obvious to unlikely. Managers were also advised to focus on stands on medium elevation (300 m), as stands on lower or higher elevations were expected to produce less harvested volume and net present value. For rural Alaska communities suffering from expensive heating costs, it was suggested that approximately 20 ha of properly managed forest could sustain a household's annual heating requirement, while continuous forest coverage and decent diversity could still be maintained.