Modelling exploration of the future of European beech (Fagussylvatica L.) under climate change—Range,abundance, genetic diversity and adaptive response |
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Authors: | Koen Kramer Bernd Degen Jutta Buschbom Thomas Hickler Wilfried Thuiller Martin T Sykes Wim de Winter |
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Institution: | 1. Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Netherlands;2. Institute for Forest Genetics, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Germany;3. Geobiosphere Science Centre, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, S-22362, Sweden;4. Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France |
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Abstract: | We explored impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of European beech by applying state of the art statistical and process-based models, and assessed possible climate change impacts on both adaptive capacity in the centre of its distribution and adaptive responses of functional traits at the leading and trailing edge of the current distribution. The species area models agree that beech has the potential to expand its northern edge and loose habitat at the southern edge of its distribution in a future climate. The change in local population size in the centre of the distribution of beech has a small effect on the genetic diversity of beech, which is projected to maintain its current population size or to increase in population size. Thus, an adaptive response of functional traits of small populations at the leading and trailing edges of the distribution is possible based on genetic diversity available in the local population, even within a period of 2–3 generations. |
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Keywords: | Fagus sylvatica Climate change Species area Abundance Genetic diversity Adaptive response Modelling BIOMOD LPJ-GUESS Eco-Gene ForGEM |
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