Forest fragmentation and duration of forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) outbreaks in northern hardwood forests

In northern forests dominated by aspen (Populus spp.), the duration of outbreaks of forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) has been reported to increase with forest fragmentation. This relationship has not been tested in other forest types affected by this widespread native defoliator. From 2002 to 2007, a large-scale outbreak of this insect in the northeastern United States defoliated millions of hectares, with sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) the primary host. We used digital defoliation maps generated from aerial surveys and national land cover data to assess the effect of fragmentation on outbreak duration in areas of NY, MA, VT, and NH. We found that outbreak duration increased with forest cover and decreased with the forest edge, in opposition to the pattern previously reported for aspen-dominated forests in Canada. This pattern was significant from plot sizes ranging from 100 m to 1000 m in radius. The relationship between FTC and its natural enemies, which was postulated to underlie the effect of fragmentation on outbreaks in aspen forests, may be affected differently in northern hardwood forests, or other factors may be more important in determining outbreak duration in this forest type.