Forecast of Sulfur Deposition in Japan for Various Energy Supply and Emission Control Scenarios

In order to contribute to the analysis and solution of regional scale environmental problems in East Asia, we developed a tool for the comprehensive assessment of alternative policy options to improve air quality. This tool projects the future regional energy supply, calculates the emission levels of sulfur dioxide and estimates the geographical pattern of sulfur deposition resulting from emissions. Sulfur deposition in Japan through 2030 was forecasted for various energy supply and emission control scenarios using the analysis tool. Future sulfur depositions were calculated from the source-receptor matrix for 1995 and the growth rate of emission for the source subregion. In the case of the current legislation scenario, anthropogenic SO₂ emissions in East Asia would grow by 34 percent and sulfur deposition in Japan would increase by approximately 20 percent between 1995 and 2030. This increase in sulfur deposition over these 35 years is sligthly less than the contribution from volcanic emission to sulfur deposition in Japan. In the case of the hypothetical dirty scenario for China, sulfur deposition in several grids which face the Sea of Japan would double by 2030.