A Threshold Model for Heron Productivity |
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Authors: | Panagiotis Besbeas Byron J. T. Morgan |
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Affiliation: | (1) Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece;(2) School of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NF, England, UK; |
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Abstract: | We demonstrate the potential of conditionally Gaussian state-space models in integrated population modeling, when certain model parameters may be functions of previous observations. The approach is applied to a heron census, and the data are best described by a model with three population-size thresholds which determine the population productivity. The model provides an explanation of how the population rebounds rapidly after major falls in size, which are characteristic of the data. By contrast, a simple logarithmic regression of productivity on population size was not significant. The results are of ecological interest, and suggest hypotheses for further investigation. Supplementary figures are available online. |
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