1982-2010年江苏省人口老龄化影响税收规模的实证分析

基于江苏省1982-2010年有关时间序列数据，通过构建计量经济模型并采用Stata12.0统计分析软件对模型进行普通最小二乘估计(OLS)。研究发现，老年人口比重与人均税收呈现负相关关系。通过分别对1982-1993年、1989-2000年和1999-2010年3个时间段的时间序列数据进行回归分析发现1999-2010年期间老龄化对税收规模有显著的消极影响，1982-1993年和1989-2000年的老龄化对税收的影响不显著。基于此，主张通过培育养老产业、提高养老保障水平来保障政府税收规模处于合理水平。

An Empirical Analysis of the Size of the Tax Impact of Jiangsu Aging Population from 1982 to 2010

Based on the 1982-2010 year time series data of Jiangsu province,constructing econometric models and using the statistical analysis software of Stata12.0 and using the model ordinary least squares estimation﹙OLS﹚. The study found the pro-portion of elderly population and per capita tax negative correlation relationship. Regression analyzed the time series data of 1982-1993, 1989-2000,1999-2010,it found that the aging of 1999-2010 had a significantly negative impact on the size of the tax and the aging of 1982-1993 and 1989-2000 was not significant. therefore, advocating the government should develop the pension industry and raise the level of security to protect the government pension tax treatment at a reasonable level.