红富士苹果果实大小分布的早期预测研究

以盛花后30～50d果实横径的日平均生长量(DFGR)作为预测指标,根据预测指标与采收时对应果实横径之间的线性回归方程y=153.571x+73.492(x为盛花后30～50dDFGRmm/d,y为采收时果实横径mm)来预测采收时果实的平均横径。同时根据红富士苹果采收时果实大小的分布获得以平均果实大小u为对称轴呈正态分布的曲线方程F=1/犤4×0.556×(2π)0.5犦×e-犤(x-u)^2/(2×0.556^2)犦(F为某一等级的果实分布频率,x为相应等级的果实横径),根据所获得的正态分布的曲线方程来预测采收时不同大小级别果实所占比例。连续3个生长季节预测分布状况和实测分布状况的比较结果表明:利用正态分布的曲线方程来预测富士苹果果实采收时不同大小级别分布,优于直接采用盛花后30～50dDFGR来预测采收时单果果实大小获得的不同果实大小的级别分布,且与实测的采收时果园果实大小分布的吻合度较高。

Study on the Forecast of Fruit Size Distribution of Fuji Apples during the Early Growing Season

The mean fruit size of Fuji apple variety at harvest time was forecasted based on the daily growth rate of fruit diam-eter during30～50days after full bloom(equations for forecasting:y=153.571x+73.49).Individual fruit diameter of Fuji apples was normal distribution,and the frequency of fruit size category in mm could be estimated by equation F=1/4×0.556×(2π) 0.5 ]×e-(x-u)^2/(2×0.556^2)] (u is mean forecasted fruit diameter of the year in mm,F the frequency distribution in percentage of the size category,x the mean fruit size of the category).The results obtained in three successive growing seasons showed that the forecasted frequency of fruit size distribution,based on the above equation of normal distribution using the mean forecasted fruit diameter obtained with equation y=153.571x+73.49,corresponded well to that obtained at harvest in the field.