降水一水土保持一径流统计模型在潮河流域的应用

以密云水库以上的潮河流域作为研究区域,对流域1961—2005年的还原年径流量、年降水量、年水土保持措施（水平梯田和造林）面积数据进行了多元回归分析。建立基于降水—水土保持—径流之间关系的统计模型,定量评估了该区水土保持措施对流域年径流量的影响程度。模型评估结果表明,1961—1970年,1971—1980年,1981—1990年,1991—2000年,2001—2005年,流域水土保持措施的年均减水效应分别为2.54%,3.52%,28.71%,6.87%和48.02%;1981—2005年,流域水土保持措施的年均减水效应比较显著为22.96%。2001—2005年的年均减水效应最大,1981—1990年的年均减水效应次之,1991—2000年的年均减水效应最小。水土保持措施对枯水时段的减水效应更为突出。

Application of a Rainfall-Soil and Water Conservation-Runoff Statistical Model in Chaohe River Basin

Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir as a study area,the influence of soil and water conservation measures on annual runoff was assessed quantitatively by the rainfall-soil and water conservation-runoff statistical model established on the basis of multiple regression analysis using historical annual runoff,annual precipitation and areas of soil and water conservation measures in the drainage basin during 1961-2005.The results showed that during 1961-1970,1971-1980,1981-1990,1991-2000 and 2001-2005,the average annual runoff-reduction effects were 2.54%,3.52%,28.71%,6.87% and 48.02%,respectively,with an average of 22.96% during 1981-2005.The average annual runof-freduction effect was the greatest during 2001-2005,intermediate during 1981-1990,and the smallest during 1991-2000.The runoff reduction effects of soil and water conservation measures were more profound in the drier period.