| 灰色拓扑预测方法在冰情预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王慧明.灰色拓扑预测方法在冰情预报中的应用[J].内蒙古农业大学学报(自然科学版),2006,27(1):86-89. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王慧明 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院,呼和浩特,010018 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文应用灰色拓扑预测方法,根据1957年-1983年的实测资料,探讨黄河内蒙古段冰情预报的规律,并建立了冰情预测模型,对1984~2005年的开河、封河情况进行了预测。结果表明,本模型具有模型预见期长,计算所需参数简单,使用范围广等特点。用于中长期预报预报,结果基本符合实际,可以为黄河防凌工作提供参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统理论 拓扑预测 冰情预报 封河日期 开河日期 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-3575(2005)04-0086-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-12-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年12月8日 |
APPLICATION OF TOPOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHOD OF GREY THEORY TO ICE FORECASTING |
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| WANG Hui-ming.APPLICATION OF TOPOLOGICAL FORECASTING METHOD OF GREY THEORY TO ICE FORECASTING[J].Journal of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition),2006,27(1):86-89. |
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| Authors: | WANG Hui-ming |
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| Institution: | College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Huhhot 010018, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of ice flood from 1957 to 1983, the method of topological forecasting of grey theory was applied to study the law of ice condition of Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River, and topological models of ice flood were built, and the freeze-up date and break-up date of the Yellow River from 1984 to 2005 were calculated. The result showed that the models were applicable to be used in long period forcasting, and simple parameters were needed for prediction. The models could be used as an important basis for ice jam prevention. |
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| Keywords: | Grey theory topological forcasting ice forcasting freeze-up date break-up date |
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