玉米生长模型MCSODS对气候变化的适应性检验

利用河南省温县多年玉米栽培数据资料对玉米生长模型MCSODS的系统参数进行调试,使品种模拟参数符合当地情况。采用秋常、秋凉、秋暖不同年型下典型年份的玉米栽培资料检验玉米生长模型对气候变化的适应性。结果显示,不同年型下生育期的模拟误差根均方差(RMSE)在秋常条件下为2.06,吻合度最高;秋凉、秋暖年RMSE分别为2.32和3.45。产量模拟误差RMSE为494.8 kg/hm2,模拟效果一致性较好。2006、2007年玉米田间实测数据对系统叶面积指数和地上生物量模拟的检验结果显示,郑单958和浚单20叶面积指数的RMSE分别为0.441 0和0.402 2,地上干物重RMSE分别为1 683.0 kg/hm2和898.5 kg/hm2,模拟结果良好。

Testing on the Adaptability of Maize Growth Model MCSODS to Climate Change

Taking Wenxian country of Henan province for example, the parameters of MCSODS were modified using local years maize cultivated data, then the adaptability of MCSODS for climate change was tested through maize cultivated data of different model years, normal autumn, cool autumn and warm autumn. The results indicated that for growth and development period, in normal autumn the simulation fitness was the best, RMSE=2.06, as in the warm autumn and cool autumn, RMSE were 2.32 and 3.45, respectively. The simulation error for yield under different model years RMSE=494.8 kg/ha, which indicated the better consistence. The test was done for LAI and aboveground biomass employing the measured maize data in 2006 and 2007. The results showed that RMSE for LAI of Zhengdan958 and Xundan20 were 0.441 0 and 0.402 2, respectively, for aboveground biomass was 1 683.0 kg/ha and 898.5 kg/ha, respectively, which was excellent. MCSODS could simulate maize growth and development and yield under different types of climate in Henan.