基于气象适宜度指数的若尔盖湿地天然牧草产量估算模型

气象条件极大地制约着若尔盖湿地天然牧草的生长状况,为了从气候条件适宜角度评估牧草长势年景的优劣,利用若尔盖湿地天然草场牧草1983—2013年近31年(2002年缺测)牧草产量观测资料,得到能够反映光、温、水对牧草生长影响程度的气象适宜度指数,分析了若尔盖湿地天然牧草产量与气象因子之间的关系,分别建立了5月、6月和7月牧草产量气象适宜度线性和生长曲线估算模型。结果表明:所建立的牧草产量气象适宜度估算模型能够较好地模拟牧草产量的演变趋势;各月气象适宜度产量线性模型的精度普遍高于生长曲线模型;与干重模型相比,鲜重模型精度较差。受牧草产量观测资料精度的限制,6、7月牧草产量估算模型还需要进一步改进。

Estimation Model for the Natural Herbage Yield in Zoige Wetland: Based on Meteorological Suitability Index

The growth status of natural herbage in Zoige wetland is largely restricted by the meteorological condition in the region. In order to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the herbage growing season from the perspective of the climatic condition, the paper consulted the observation data of the natural herbage yield in Zoige wetland over the past 31 years from 1983 to 2013 (no available data in 2002), obtained the meteorological suitability index that could reflect the impact of light, temperature and water on the growth of herbage, and analyzed the relationship between the natural herbage yield and the meteorological factors in Zoige wetland, and built the evaluation models for showing the linear and growth curve of herbage yield and meteorological suitability in May, June and July respectively. The results showed that: the evaluation model for the herbage yield and meteorological suitability could better simulate the evolution trend of herbage yield; the accuracy of the linear model for the herbage yield and meteorological suitability for each month was generally higher than that of the growth curve model; the accuracy of raw weight model was poorer compared with that of dry weight model. Due to the restricted accuracy of the observation data of herbage yield, the estimation models for the herbage yield in June and July also need to be improved.