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近60年长江源区径流变化特征及趋势分析
引用本文:苏中海,陈伟忠.近60年长江源区径流变化特征及趋势分析[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(34):166-171.
作者姓名:苏中海  陈伟忠
作者单位:(青海省水文水资源勘测局,西宁 810001)
摘    要:为深入了解长江源径流的演变特征和变化趋势,笔者以长江源为研究区,采用集中度、集中期、线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变检验、模比系数差积曲线,研究了长江源区径流的年内、年际、年代际趋势性变化,突变点检测和丰枯周期性。结果显示:长江源区1956—2012年径流量总体呈显著增加趋势,上游径流量年际变化较下游剧烈。长江源径流集中度主要集中在55%~85%,上游集中度高于下游。集中期主要分布在7月下旬—8月上旬且有推后趋势。沱沱河站径流主要受降水和冰雪融水补给,直门达站径流主要受降水、冰雪融水和地下水补给。21世纪以来,长江源径流进入丰水期,直门达站比多年平均增加19.3%,上游沱沱河站增加更为明显,达53.8%。沱沱河站年径流量突变点发生在2005年。直门达站年径流量突变点发生在1961、1968、2008年。1956—2012年沱沱河站有1个完整的丰平枯周期,直门达站有3个丰平枯周期。

关 键 词:番茄  番茄  寡照  等级指标  日光温室  
收稿时间:2016/9/12 0:00:00
修稿时间:2016/11/29 0:00:00

Runoff in Source Region of the Yangtze River in Recent 60 Years: Variation Characteristics and Trend Analysis
Su Zhonghai and Chen Weizhong.Runoff in Source Region of the Yangtze River in Recent 60 Years: Variation Characteristics and Trend Analysis[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2016,32(34):166-171.
Authors:Su Zhonghai and Chen Weizhong
Institution:(Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001)
Abstract:The paper aims to grasp the evolution characteristics and variation trends of runoff in the source of the Yangtze River. The authors used concentration, concentrated period, linear trend estimation, Mann-Kendall mutation testing, residual mass curves of coefficient of modulus to study runoff within the year, interannual and interdecadal trend changes, mutation detection and more or less cycle. The results showed that: runoff was significantly increased from 1956 to 2012 in the source region of the Yangtze River, and interannual variability of upstream was more obvious compared with that of downstream. Runoff concentration was mainly concentrated in 55%-85%, and upstream concentration was higher than that of downstream. Concentrated period of runoff were mainly distributed in late July and early August, and this trend became more postponed. Runoff was supplied by precipitation, snow and glacier melt for Tuotuohe station, and was supplied by precipitation, snow and glacier melt water, and groundwater for zhimenda Station. Since 2000, runoff went into the wet period in the source region of the Yangtze River, which increased 19.3% more than the annual average in Zhimenda station, and increased 53.8% more than the annual average in Tuotuohe station. Annual runoff mutation occurred in 2005 in Tuotuohe station, and in 1961, 1968, 2008 at Zhimenda station. Tuotuohe station had 1 complete more or less cycle, Zhimenda station had 3 more or less cycles.
Keywords:source region of the Yangtze River  runoff  variation  trend
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