The contribution of maize cropping in the Midwest USA to global warming: A regional estimate

Agricultural soils emit about 50% of the global flux of N₂O attributable to human influence, mostly in response to nitrogen fertilizer use. Recent evidence that the relationship between N₂O fluxes and N-fertilizer additions to cereal maize are non-linear provides an opportunity to estimate regional N₂O fluxes based on estimates of N application rates rather than as a simple percentage of N inputs as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We combined a simple empirical model of N₂O production with the SOCRATES soil carbon dynamics model to estimate N₂O and other sources of Global Warming Potential (GWP) from cereal maize across 19,000 cropland polygons in the North Central Region (NCR) of the US over the period 1964-2005. Results indicate that the loading of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from cereal maize production in the NCR was 1.7 Gt CO₂e, with an average 268 t CO₂e produced per tonne of grain. From 1970 until 2005, GHG emissions per unit product declined on average by 2.8 t CO₂e ha⁻¹ annum⁻¹, coinciding with a stabilisation in N application rate and consistent increases in grain yield from the mid-1970’s. Nitrous oxide production from N fertilizer inputs represented 59% of these emissions, soil C decline (0-30 cm) represented 11% of total emissions, with the remaining 30% (517 Mt) from the combustion of fuel associated with farm operations. Of the 126 Mt of N fertilizer applied to cereal maize from 1964 to 2005, we estimate that 2.2 Mt N was emitted as N₂O when using a non-linear response model, equivalent to 1.75% of the applied N.