荥阳市城镇化水平与耕地资源协调性分析

探究荥阳市在城镇化进程中其城镇化水平和耕地资源变化情况的相互关系，有利于正确认识经济发展与耕地资源保护之间的关系，对于妥善处理荥阳市城镇化水平与耕地资源协调发展具有重要借鉴意义。基于荥阳市1995—2014年的统计数据，运用回归分析法和协调度分析法，分别对荥阳市城镇化水平与耕地资源变化情况的相关性以及协调性进行分析。结果表明：20年间荥阳市的城镇化水平在0.253~0.470数值范围之间，总体趋势在不断提高，耕地总面积数值范围在4.073×10⁴~4.593×10⁴ hm²，总体趋势在逐年减少；荥阳市城镇化水平和耕地面积的变化情况的相关性在0.01水平上呈显著负相关关系，相关系数为-0.756；城镇化水平和耕地资源的协调性状况呈现一定的阶段性，整体表现出“基本调和→不协调→调和和基本协调→勉强调和”的趋势。

Coordination Analysis of Urbanization Level and Cultivated Land Resources in Xingyang City

The exploration of the relationship between urbanization level and cultivated land resources change in urbanization process in Xingyang City is benefit to the correct understanding of the relationship between economic development and cultivated land resources protection, which could provide reference for the harmonious development of urbanization level and cultivated land resources in Xingyang City. The dependency and harmony of urbanization level and cultivated land resources change were analyzed by the methods of regression analysis and coordination degree analysis based on the statistic data from 1995 to 2014. The results showed that urbanization level in Xingyang in this 20 years was 0.253 to 0.470 which had an increase trend, while cultivated land area changed from 4.073×10⁴ to 4.593×10⁴ hm², which reduced annually. The urbanization level and cultivated land resources change had a significantly negative correlation at 0.01 level and the correlation coefficient was -0.726. The harmony between urbanization level and cultivated land had periodicity, which showed a tendency of “basically coordinated→ uncoordinated→fundamentally coordinated→ reluctantly coordinated”.