广东近40年气候变化特征及对农业的影响

为了合理利用气候资源，趋利避害，保障粮食及特色作物安全生产，利用广东省9个代表气象站1971—2010年气象资料，分析了近40年热量、降水及光照资源时空变化特征。研究表明，广东各地平均气温1976年以后呈较明显的上升趋势，上升突变年出现在1989年，2007年以后为下降趋势；四季气温亦呈上升趋势，冬季及秋季最为明显，由北到南，冬季增幅最多，夏季变化最小；1990年以后热量资源增加显著。各地年平均降水量呈减少趋势，由北到南，冬季、春季降水量减少，夏季、秋季增多。潜在蒸散于20世纪80年代最低，21世纪初期最高，冬季增幅最为明显。日照百分率呈下降趋势。气候变化对作物生长、产量品质、种植布局及干旱等气象灾害均带来一定影响。

Climate Changing Feature in Recent 40 Years in Guangdong and Its Impact on Agriculture

In order to make effective utilization of climate resources, avoid disadvantages caused by climate change, and ensure the safety of food and characteristics crops growing, based on the climate data from 1971 to 2010 of 9 representative meteorological stations of Guangdong Province, the features had been analyzed about the spatial and temporal variation of temperature, precipitation and sunshine in recent 40 years. The results indicated that the average temperature had increased in each climatic zone of Guangdong Province since 1976 by an obvious trend, and the mutation point appeared in 1989, the average temperature had been declining since 2007; the average temperature also rose in four seasons, especially in winter and autumn, from north to south, the average temperature increased mostly in winter, and changes were small in summer; the heat resources increased significantly after 1990. The annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend, the precipitation gradually reduced in winter and spring from north to south, and increased in summer and autumn. Potential evapotranspiration was the lowest in the 1980s and was the highest in the early 21st century, the increasing was most obvious in winter. The change of the sunshine percentage decreased for 40 years. Climate change had a certain impact on crop growing, production, quality, plant layout and meteorological disasters, such as drought.