气候变暖背景下内蒙古作物物候变化研究

利用长时间序列物候观测数据研究作物物候变化是认知气候变暖对农业生产影响的重要途径。研究选用1981—2009年内蒙古地区13个农业气象观测站的小麦和玉米物候资料，利用统计方法分析了内蒙古作物（小麦/玉米）物候的变化趋势。结果表明：在管理（主要指调整播期）和作物品种变化共同作用下，小麦和玉米物候对气候变化的响应不同。小麦的播种期平均推迟1.7 d/10 a，而玉米播种期提前1.0 d/10 a。小麦的抽穗和成熟期分别平均推迟1.7 d/10 a和0.8 d/10 a，而玉米抽穗期平均变化较小，成熟期平均推迟达3.3 d/10 a。小麦和玉米不同生长阶段历时的变化趋势呈显著差异。出苗—抽穗营养生长阶段，小麦平均缩短了1.4 d/10 a，而玉米却延长了1.2 d/10 a；抽穗—成熟生殖生长阶段，小麦和玉米分别平均延长了0.2 d/10 a、3.3 d/10 a；而出苗—成熟整个生长阶段，小麦平均缩短了1.2 d/10 a，而玉米却延长达到4.5 d/10 a。

Changes of Crop Phenology in Inner Mongolia Under the Background of Climate Warming

Using long-term observed phenological data, research on the trends of crop phenology is a vital approach to understand the impact of climate warming on agricultural production. In this study, the trends in wheat and maize for 1981 to 2009 were investigated based on phenological data from 13 agro-experimental stations in Inner Mongolia by using statistical methods. The study showed that the response of wheat and maize phenology to climate change was different under the combined effect of management change (sowing date adjustment) and cultivar shift. Across the investigated stations, while sowing date of wheat was delayed on an average of 1.7 d/10 a, maize sowing date was in advance with an average of 1.0 d/10 a. The heading date and the subsequent maturity date of wheat were delayed on an average of 1.7 d/10 a and 0.8 d/10 a. Although heading date of maize showed small changes, the maize maturity date was delayed on an average by up to 3.3 d/10 a. Furthermore, trends in duration of different growth stages for wheat and maize were significantly different. The duration from emergence to heading (VGP) of wheat was shortened by an average of 1.4 d/10 a, while VGP of maize was prolonged on an average of 1.2 d/10 a. Also the durations from heading to maturity (RGP) of wheat and maize were prolonged on an average of 0.2 d/10 a and 3.3 d/10 a, respectively. However, the duration from emergence to maturity (WGP) of wheat was shortened by an average of 1.2 d/10 a, while that of maize was prolonged on an average of 4.5 d/10 a.