陕西省暴雨灾害风险实时评估技术研究

为了加强对高危地区的暴雨灾害防御指导，对陕西省暴雨灾害进行实时定量评估。利用陕西省自动站实时暴雨数据、历年暴雨灾情数据、地理数据和社会经济数据，采用主成分分析法、层次分析法等，给出了暴雨致灾因子、孕灾环境脆弱度、承载体脆弱度和抗灾力4 个指标，并结合GIS 技术，构建了陕西省农业暴雨灾害风险度实时评估模型。通过对2011 年陕西省典型暴雨灾害实时风险度进行验证检验，表明该模型的评估结果与实际灾情较为一致。

Research on Real-time Risk Assessment of Rainstorm in Shaanxi Province

In order to quantitatively assess the rainstorm disaster in real-time and give the good guidance on the high-risk area of rainstorm in Shaanxi Province. Based on the meteorological data of rainstorm in Shaanxi, the historical rainstorm disastrous data, the geographic data and the socio-economic data, the model of the rainstorm hazard risk evaluation in real-time, the circumstance sensitivity, the rainstorm hazard vulnerability and the resistance capacity were given by use of principal component analysis, entropy method and analysis hierarchy process. Meanwhile, combined with the GIS technology, the real-time risk assessment model of the rainstorm disaster was built in Shaanxi Province. The model was applied on the typical rainstorm disasters verification in 2011, the assessment results showed the consistent with the actual disasters.