Critical factors driving aphanomyces damping‐off and root disease in clover revealed and explained using linear and generalized linear models and boosted regression trees

Subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum) is an important forage legume in Mediterranean regions worldwide. Aphanomyces damping‐off and root disease (Aphanomyces trifolii) poses significant threat to its persistence and productivity. Studies were conducted to define how environmental explanatory variables (temperature, soil type, moisture, nutrition) and variety influence disease severity and consequent forage productivity and persistence. Relationships were modelled using linear and generalized linear models and boosted regression trees. Linear modelling highlighted complex relationships between environmental variables and each dependent variable (emergence, tap and lateral root disease, dry shoot and root weight). All environmental variables produced significant interaction and/or main effects within each dependent variable. Boosted regression trees supported the complex nature of relationships in linear models, with temperature and either soil or variety most, and nutrition least, influential. Heat maps showed more disease for low temperatures. Least tap root disease was under high temperatures, while least lateral root disease was under medium or high temperatures, low moisture, and in sand‐based soil. These are the first studies using modelling approaches to reveal the complexities of how fluctuating soil temperature, moisture and nutrition conditions, and soil type and variety, determine aphanomyces damping‐off and root disease severity and resultant adverse impacts on forage legume productivity and persistence. Outcomes are widely applicable across soilborne oomycete pathogens of forage legumes. Studies highlighted how warming temperatures and drying climate associated with climate change should reduce future impact and importance of this and other soilborne oomycete diseases of forage legumes favoured by cold temperatures and wet and waterlogged conditions.