基于APSIM模型的大气气溶胶直接辐射效应对我国玉米产量的影响评估

在大气气溶胶污染日益严重的时代背景下，气溶胶对农作物生长发育的影响越来越不可忽视。本文以全球气溶胶监测网（AErosol RObotic NETwork，AERONET）中具有常年观测数据的我国北京、香河和太湖为研究站点，利用AERONET多年观测资料以及MODIS地表反照率数据，借助6S（Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum）辐射传输模式，计算出2001-2014年研究站点的气溶胶直接辐射效应，评估了APSIM（Agricultural Production Systems Simulator）作物模型的适用性，运用验证适用的APSIM模型分析了气溶胶直接辐射效应对我国玉米产量的影响。结果表明：1）验证后的APSIM玉米模型在我国北京、香河和太湖玉米产区具有较好的适用性。APSIM模型在模拟玉米的发育期以及产量中的模拟结果较好，其中各站点产量的相对均方根误差（NRMSE）为1.55%~6.24%，一致性指标（D）为0.80~0.99，决定系数（R²）为0.75~1.00。2）气溶胶使得太阳直接辐射降低；降低的趋势主要受气溶胶的净辐射通量的影响。2001-2014年期间北京、香河和太湖总辐射量分别降低31.95%、14.74%和28.30%。3）气溶胶直接辐射效应造成玉米减产。2001-2014年期间气溶胶直接辐射效应使得北京、香河和太湖玉米产量分别减少28.44%、14.89%和13.43%。总体来说，2001-2014年期间大气气溶胶直接辐射效应使得我国北京、香河和太湖3个高污染区的玉米产量减少13.43%~28.44%。

Assessment of the direct radiation effect of atmospheric aerosol on maize yield in China by using APSIM model

Owing to the increasingly serious atmospheric aerosol pollution, the impact of aerosols on the growth and development of crops can no longer be ignored. In this paper, the Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu stations in China with perennial observation data in global aerosol monitoring network (AErosol RObotic NETwork, AERONET) were used as the research stations. Based on the AERONET data, MODIS surface albedo data and the 6S (Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum) radiation transfer model, the effects of aerosol direct radiation at three research stations from 2001 to 2014 were calculated. Then, the applicability of the APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) model was evaluated, and the impacts of direct aerosol radiation on maize yield in China were analyzed by using the APSIM model. The results showed that:1) the verified APSIM maize model had good applicability in the maize producing areas of Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu in China. The results of APSIM model were a better simulation of the developmental stages and the yield of maize, in which normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), coincidence indicator (D), and determinate coefficient (R²) were 1.55%-6.24%, 0.80-0.99, and 0.75-1.00, respectively. 2) Aerosols reduced direct solar radiation, and the decreasing trend was mainly affected by the net radiation flux of aerosols. The total solar radiation of Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu stations reduced by 31.95%, 14.74% and 28.30%, respectively, from 2001 to 2014. 3) The direct radiation effect of aerosols caused a reduction in maize yield. The maize yields of the Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu stations, caused by the direct radiation effect of aerosols, were reduced by 28.44%, 14.89%, and 13.43%, respectively, from 2001 to 2014. In general, because of the direct radiation effects of atmospheric aerosols, the maize yields from 2001 to 2014 were reduced by 13.43%-28.44% in three highly polluted areas (Beijing, Xianghe, and Taihu) in China.