2001-2020年贵州省气候变化及人类活动对植被变化的影响

以MODIS-EVI及同期气候因子及气象干旱指标SPEI作为表征植被和气候时空变化特征的指标,采用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall显著性检验、Hurst指数分析和残差分析等方法探究贵州省2001—2020年植被生长状况对气候变化及人类活动的响应。结果表明：（1）2001—2020年贵州省植被增加的区域面积比为84.97%,主要改善区域以贵州省北部和西南部地区为主,且植被在未来的空间变化趋势上以反持续性增加为主,占据贵州省总面积的69.23%。（2）贵州省植被与气候因子降水呈正相关关系,与气温呈负相关关系,但相关性均较弱,而区域植被生长状况与SPEI间的正相关性大于负相关性。（3） EVI与人类活动在贵州省北部、西部及西南部地区主要以积极的改善作用为主,而在贵阳、遵义及其周边地区则以消极的抑制作用较为突出,整体上研究区内的人类经济活动与植被EVI呈正相关关系。研究结论可为贵州省植被生态保护及其与气候变化、人类活动之间的适宜性研究提供客观的科学理论支撑。

Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Change in Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2020

MODIS-EVI, climate factors and meteorological drought index SPEI were used as the indicators to characterize the spatio-temporal changes of vegetation and climate, Theil-sen Median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall significance test, Hurst index analysis and residual analysis were used to explore the response of vegetation growth to climate change and human activities in Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2020. The results showed that:(1) The regional area ratio of vegetation increase in Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2020 was 84.97%, and the main improvement areas were mainly in the north and southwest of Guizhou Province. In terms of the future spatial change trend, vegetation was mainly in reverse continuous increasing, accounting for 69.23% of the total area of Guizhou Province. (2) There was a positive correlation between vegetation and precipitation and a negative correlation between vegetation and temperature in Guizhou Province, but the correlation was weak. While the positive correlation between regional vegetation growth and SPEI was greater than the negative correlation. (3) In the northern, western and southwestern regions of Guizhou Province, EVI and human activities showed positive improvement, while in Guiyang, Zunyi and its surrounding areas, EVI and human economic activities showed inhibitory effect. On the whole, there was a positive correlation between human economic activities and vegetation EVI in the study area. The conclusion could provide objective scientific theoretical support for the study of vegetation ecological protection and its suitability with climate change and human activities in Guizhou Province.