马尾松造林中的风险决策初探

决策分析是近几十年来随着数学、统计学和电子计算机等学科的发展而形成的一门管理技术。应用这种技术,可以帮助决策者根据已有的信息,对各种可能性作出科学的推论和判断。本文试将非确定性风险决策应用于马尾松造林问题,着重介绍决策过程,同时根据造林时的旬雨量状态及可能的造林成活率,估计各种决策方案的造林投资损失期望,进行敏感度分析,并提出造林决策的最佳方案。

A Preliminary Study on Risky Decision in Planting of Masson''''s Pine

In this paper, the rain amount and survival rate were analyzed and quoted, both based on the meteorological phenomena data of Nanjing County and Zhang Jia Miao. The economical loss of different programmes were estimated by random methods used in the Masson's Pine Planting decision. And the best planting decision was advanced as a result in the study.