| 晚稻稻纵卷叶螟发生气象条件分析与预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 骆丽楠,陈中赟,吴彬,盛琼,陈建萍,张喜亮.晚稻稻纵卷叶螟发生气象条件分析与预测方法研究[J].安徽农学通报,2015(8):134-136. |
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| 作者姓名： | 骆丽楠 陈中赟 吴彬 盛琼 陈建萍 张喜亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖州市气象局,浙江湖州,313000;湖州市气象局,浙江湖州,313000;湖州市气象局,浙江湖州,313000;湖州市气象局,浙江湖州,313000;湖州市气象局,浙江湖州,313000;湖州市气象局,浙江湖州,313000 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江湖州市科技局攻关项目(2013GZ10)“湖州市光热资源分布式模拟和精细化特征研究”。 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对湖州2001-2012年共12a水稻稻纵卷叶螟发生资料与气象资料进行对比分析,选择影响湖州稻纵卷叶螟发生的气象因子气温、降水、风速、湿度、日照等,考虑前期气象条件和虫源数,通过统计分析方法,建立了水稻纵卷叶螟的发生气象条件等级预报模型。用本地气象台发布的未来10d天气预报结论,结合前期天气实况和当前虫源数,对未来10d稻纵卷叶螟的发生气象条件等级进行预报。预报模型紧密联系预报产品特点和预报服务实际,实用性较强。
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| 关 键 词： | 稻纵卷叶螟 气象条件 分析 预测 |
Analysis of Meteorological Condition and Forecast Method Research for Occurrence of Cnaphalocr-ocis medinalis Guenee |
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| Abstract: | We compare the occurrence rates of CnaphalocrocismedinalisGuenee and their related meteorologic data in Huzhou district from 2001 to 2012. We identify an internal relation between Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee (CMG)occurrence and meteorologic condition,by analyzing several crucial meteorologic factors,including temper?ature,rainfall,airspeed,humidity,sunshine,et al. We construct a powerful meteorologic forecast model to fore?cast CMG occurrence grades,which is easy and precise in forecasting CMG occurrence grades in the next 10 days by adding the parameters of weather report conclusion,current weather condition and CMG number into this model. This forecast model is powerful and practicable because it is close to characteristics of forecast products and applica?tion. |
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| Keywords: | CnaphalocrocismedinalisGuenee Meteorological condition Analysis Forecast |
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