石羊河流域近50a来气候变化与人类活动对水资源的影响

用主成分回归法对石羊河流域径流及进入红崖山水库水量的各影响因素进行耦合关系分析,得到三个主成分,其方差贡献率达92.79%。根据各自对应的特征向量特点,以人为因子、温度因子和降水因子代替原自变量进行回归分析,方程相关系数为0.865,对各系数进行t检验,结果都已通过,影响作用显著,回归方程有显著意义。根据回归方程,近50a来人为因子在水资源变化过程中起主导负作用,其影响力占总影响力的-58.46%,大大超过了降水因子22.35%的正作用,而温度因子虽其影响力不是很大,只占总影响力的-19.19%,但却使水资源减少的趋势进一步加剧。

Coupling Relations Between Water Resources Variation and Climate and Human Activities During the Past 50 Years

The relationships between the runoff and its factors were calculated by the main component regression analysis in the recent 50 years in Shiyang River Basin.There were 3 main components,their explained rate was 55.42%,20.82% and 16.55% of variance respectively,with the total variance explained rate of 92.79%.Those main components were humanness factor,temperature factor and precipitation factor according to their eigenvectors.Substituted those factors for original variable to made regression analysis,the correlation coefficient of equation was 0.865,F-levene value was 35.616, verify probability P<0.05.Moreover,all factors have passed the t-levene.The result of regression function was very good.According to the regression function,human activity had played a leading negative function,and its effect accounted for-58.46 percent of total effect,head and shoulders above precipitation factor that accounted for 22.35 percent of total effect.Moreover,although the temperature factor's effect was small,only accounted for-19.19 percent of total effect,it accelrated the trend of water resources decrease.