陕西果区苹果始花期预测模型

利用陕西省苹果产区2000—2008年气象资料和6个苹果物候观测县站始花期资料，在果树物候模型理论的基础上、应用统计学方法建立了基于气象因子的苹果始花期预测模型：y=-1．4T1-1．13T2＋0．11r＋95．1（n=42，R=0．84；F=29〉F0.01），y为各县始花日期的预测日序，T1为该县1月份平均气温，T2为该县3月份平均气温，r为该县3月下旬日照时数。根据预测结果与实际的比较，结合对当年前期气象因子的分析，提出了该模型的订正因子。根据陕西果区冬、春季气温变化趋势，模拟显示该区苹果始花期将偏早1～5d。

Prediction Model for Beginning of Apple Flowering Period in Fruit Growing Areas of Shaanxi Province

Based on the meteorological data from 2000 to 2008, the date of the beginning of the apple flowering period and the data of apple phenology in the six phonological observation stations in Shaanxi Province, the prediction model for the beginning of the apple flowering period was statistically established. The statistic equation could be described as Y = - 1.4T1 - 1.13T2 ＋0. llr ＋95.1 （n =42,R =0.84,F =29 〉 F0.01）, where T1 and T2 was the average monthly temperature in January and March respectively, r was the sunlight amount in the latest ten days of March. The correction was made after the comparison of predicting results with the observation combing the analysis of meteorological conditions before the flowering period. The date of the beginning of the apple flowering period advanced one to five days in the fruit growing areas of Shaanxi Province according to the predicting temperature variation trend in winter and spring.