用生物经济模型对我国不同类型猪场的模拟研究——模型的构建和初步结果

根据我国当前养猪生产繁育体系,将我国集约化养猪生产概括为5类典型猪场,并利用农场模型的方法,构建了不同类型猪场的生物经济模型,并考虑了模型的生物学效率。模拟的600头母猪的商品猪场、猪苗场、杂种扩繁场、杜洛克育种场和长白（或大约克）育种场每年总利润分别为56.01、12.99、100.53、134.09和164.10万元,净能利用效率分别为27.69、32.98、28.25、28.32和28.48 MJ/kg。模型还输出了不同类型猪场的成本结构、收入组成和生产综合指标。对模型的敏感度分析表明,模型对不同市场形势、生产水平和管理措施变化的反应是灵敏的。

Simulation Study of Chinese Different Types of Pig Farms by Bio-economic Model——The Construction and Preliminary Results of the Model

Five typical types of pig farms were the abstraction of Chinese intensive pig production according to the current three-level hybrid pig production system and their bio-economic farm models including biological efficiency were constructed.The annual profit of the simulated commercial pig farm,sow farm,hybrid multiplying farm,Duroc nuclear farm and Landrace(Yorkshire) nuclear farm of 600 sows in the base situations is 0.560 1,0.129 9,1.005 3,1.340 9 and 1.641 0 millions RMB,respectively.The efficiency in net energy utilization of the five farms is respectively 27.69,32.98,28.25,28.32 and 28.48 MJ/kg.Model could also output the cost structures,income structures and production performance of different types of pig farms.The sensitivity analysis showed that the models were sensitive to different market situations,production levels and management measures.