Crown density changes of Norway spruce and the influence from increased age on permanent monitoring plots in Norway during 1988–1997

On the ‘local county monitoring plots’ located throughout Norway a reduction of crown density has been noted during the period 1988–1997. The aim of this study was to determine whether this change could be attributed to normal effects due to the increased age of trees in the plots. The dataset comprised around 580 plots and 27 000 single trees of Norway spruce (Picea abies), with 10 years of crown density measurements available for each tree. A two-step approach was used, first to search for an expectancy for normal reduction of crown density by age derived from the dataset, and then to compare this with the actual reduction. The interpretation was somewhat complicated as the various results were dependent upon each other. Highly significant correlations were found between crown density and age. The relationship indicated an annual reduction of crown density of around 0.12%. However, the relationship varied both between years and between regions, and it was not possible to definitely determine whether the relationship was best described by linear or nonlinear models. Of major importance here is that the relationship appeared to be influenced by the presence of stresses, whose effects tended to be more severe in old stands. On this basis it seems questionable whether an expectancy for normal ageing can be properly defined. In the present study, however, it could still be definitely determined that the mean crown density change of—0.41% annually was too negative to be attributed to normal ageing, as it was clearly below all the suggested expectancies from the various models. This suggests that the amount of stress in the period under study has been higher than normal, and this encourages the search for causal agents in further studies. Changes in silviculture may have had some influence. The results were valid for most of Norway, with the exception of western and northern regions. Crown density assessments are subjective, which may possibly give erroneous time trends. However, it is argued that this is less likely to be of major importance in the present data.