Mathematical modelling of pseudorabies virus (syn. Aujeszky's disease virus) outbreaks aids eradication programmes: a review

Pseudorabies virus will be eradicated from the Netherlands if a typical infectious pig (Rind) infects, on average, less than one other pig. In this review, we used a stochastic SIR model to estimate Rind using data from the field and from experiments. Rind in sow herds was estimated to be significantly less than 1 and in rearing and finishing pigs Rind was higher than 1. However, if Rind is higher than 1, PRV can still be eradicated if one infectious herd infects less than one other herd during the period that the herd is infectious(Rherd <1). Some future developments in Dutch pig husbandry (e.g. group-housing of sows) and possible risks after halting vaccination are also quantitatively evaluated.