中国进口农产品水稀缺足迹研究

本文依据1999—2019年高细分度农产品贸易数据研究中国农产品进口贸易对进口来源地水资源可获性的影响效应,从演变轨迹、产品结构和进口来源地结构三个维度对中国进口农产品水稀缺足迹展开特征统计分析。研究结果表明:中国因进口农产品获得的节水效应呈现波动上升态势,但因进口替代缓解的水资源压力小于带给进口农产品产地的水资源压力,中国农产品进口贸易在水资源要素上存在着类似于"列昂惕夫悖论"的现象;2014—2019年中国进口农产品水稀缺足迹排名靠前的农产品种类主要包括棉花,碾磨谷物及谷物加工品,水果及坚果,畜禽肉、油脂及食用杂碎,植物油及其制品,豆类,油料,糖,加工糖及制糖副产品,半成品革,麻纺织品和谷物;水稀缺足迹排名靠前的进口来源地主要包括巴基斯坦、澳大利亚、美国、苏丹、乌兹别克斯坦、印度、埃及、西班牙、伊朗、哈萨克斯坦、泰国和越南。本文进而提出提升农产品自给率、拓展海外水资源利用广度和拓宽农业国际合作渠道的政策建议。

The Water Scarcity Footprint of China Agricultural Products Import

Based on the microcosmic agricultural products trade data from 1999 to 2019,this paper studies the impact of China agricultural products import on the availability of water resources in import sources, and analyzes the characteristics of China’s water scarcity footprint of imported agricultural products from three dimensions which are evolution progress, product structure and import country structure.The results show that the water saving effect of imported agricultural products in China has been fluctuating, but the water stress relieved by import substitution is smaller than the water stress brought to the source of imported agricultural products, and there is a phenomenon similar to the“Leontief paradox”in China’s agricultural products import trade in terms of water resources;from 2014 to 2019,the agricultural products with the top scarcity footprint include cotton, milled grains and processed grains, fruits and nuts, livestock and poultry meat, oil and grease and edible miscellaneous, vegetable oil and its products, pulses, oilseeds, sugar, processed sugar and sugar by-products, semi-finished leather, hemp textiles and grains;the top import sources with the top water scarcity footprint include Pakistan, Australia, the United States, Sudan, Uzbekistan, India, Egypt, Spain, Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Vietnam.This paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as improving the self-sufficiency rate of agricultural products, expanding the utilization scope of overseas water resources and broadening the channels of international agricultural cooperation.