基于雨强计算的泥石流发生预测预报

由于泥石流危害的严重性,加上泥石流灾害的成因及影响因子又比较复杂,目前尚难以完全治理,无法抑制泥石流灾害的发生。勘测评估沟谷形态、地质条件等泥石流特征指标,可分析泥石流发生的成因与机理,在预测预报上,还应充分重视与分析泥石流发生时作为最重要外因条件的雨强。提出了用雨强指标分析泥石流的发生概率,在泥石流发生预测预报技术上根据计算概率划分泥石流紧急程度。

Forecast of Debris-flow Disaster Based on Calculation of Rainfall Rate

In view of the graveness of debris-flow hazard and the complexity of its origin and influence factors, it is no way to comprehensively restrain and control the occurrence of debris-flow at the present. Although the origin and mechanism of debris-flow can be clarified, by surveying and evaluating the characteristic indexes of debris-flow, such as cleugh configuration and geology condition, but in the forecast of debris-flow, it is also essential to adequately treasure and analyze the rainfall rate being a most important condition of extraneous cause. In this paper, It is suggested that the occurrence probability of debris-flow by index of rate of rainfall, and the urgency degree of debris-flow disaster based on the calculated probability can be compartmentalized in forecast of debris-flow.