雷电潜势预报研究(英文)

该文介绍了淄博市雷电天气形势特征分别为冷锋型雷电、高空槽(切变线)型雷电以及冷涡型雷电。该课题筛选出与雷电发生相关性高的大气参数作为预报因子,各可能影响因子分别与雷电日做一一对应分析,并确定各自的阈值,选出消空效果最好的作为消空因子。并介绍了3类雷电天气形势下的消空因子及其应用。为准确预报雷电天气提供了有价值的依据。

Forecasting of Thunder/Lightning Potential

In this paper, the characteristics of thunderstorms in Zibo City were ana- lyzed. The thunderstorms could be divided into cold-front thunderstorm, upper trough （shear line） type thunderstorm and cold-vortex thunderstorm. We also screened out the atmosphere parameters that were highly correlated to the occurrence of thunder/ lightning. They were treated as the predictors. Each possible influencing factor was analyzed on the lightning day correspondingly. Their threshold values were also de- termined. Among them, the parameter that had the highest neutralizing capacity was treated as negative index. For different type of thunderstorm weather, the negative index was different. The application of negative indexes was also discussed. We hope to provide a valuable basis for the accurate forecasting of thunder/lightning.