草原生态保护补奖政策对我国牛肉供给影响的实证分析

当前,我国牛肉供需呈紧平衡格局,与此同时,2011年以来国家实施的草原生态保护补奖政策将对我国肉牛生产产生一定影响。基于局部均衡理论,以2003-2012年数据为依据,构建了综合牛肉生产、消费、贸易环节的我国牛肉局部均衡模型,进一步设计草原生态保护补奖政策情景,进行政策冲击模拟,分析此项政策对未来我国牛肉供给的影响。研究结果表明,草原生态保护补奖政策在实施牧区草原生态保护,推进牧区牧业生产方式转型升级的同时,对于增加我国牛肉生产供给能力具有促进作用,对于缓解牛肉供求紧平衡格局具有一定的作用。

Influence of Grassland Ecological Protection Subsidy-award Policies on Beef Supply in China

At present, beef supply and demand in China is in a tight balance. Since 2011, when the government adopted grassland ecological protection subsidy-award policy, important impact has excerted to beef industry and production. Based on partial equilibrium theory, this paper took the data from 2003 to 2012 as basis, constructed a beef partial equilibrium model, including beef production, consumption and trade; designed grassland ecological protection subsidy-award policy scene; simulated a policy impact; and analyzed the influence of this police on future beef supply in China. The research results indicated that the implementation of this policy could carry out pastoral grassland ecological protection, promote transformation and upgrading of production mode in pastoral animal husbandry. All these will certainly strenthen the capacity of beef production and supply in China, and play a positive role in easing the tight balance between beef supply and demand.