中国猪肉产业链市场价格传导机制

为了解猪肉产业链各环节价格的传导机制,考察各价格传导方向及传导路径是否畅通,采用中国牧业信息网及商务部2004年1月—2014年3月的月度数据,运用协整检验和向量误差修正模型对猪肉产业链各环节的价格传导机制进行实证分析。中国猪肉产业链各环节市场价格存在长期的均衡关系;误差修正模型中的误差修正的强度为2.3%,对促使市场价格系统均衡影响较小,因此不能完全依靠市场供求系统的自发力量调节猪肉产业链中各种价格的系统均衡;猪肉产业链各环节间价格传导不是完全通畅,有些环节存在1期或2期的传导时滞;猪肉产业链的价格传导表现为下游向上游传导、下游向中游传导以及中游向上游传导,是需求拉动型。应密切关注猪肉市场零售价格,以零售价格为信号,预测产业链各环节价格的近期走势,以利于养殖户和批发商准确把握市场信息,避免价格波动带来的收入损失。

Marketprice transmission mechanism of the pork industry chain in China

This paper aims at analyzing the price transmission mechanism, transmission direction and path of the pork industry, to provide relevant departments with reference information of price trend.The price transmission mechanism was investigated by using the method of a co-integration test and a vector error correction model, based on local monthly pork price data from Jan.2004 to Mar.2014.There existed a co-integration relationship between prices in the pork industry chain.Error correction intensity was 2.3%, which had a little impact on the balance of market price system, thus, spontaneous market forces should not be totally relied on.The transmission between the prices in pork industry was not smooth, with lags of 1 or 2 periods.The changes in the price of downstream products would cause the changes in the prices of midstream products, the same with downstream products to upstream products and midstream products to upstream products.Close attention should be paid on the price of downstream products.The retail price of pork should be made as a signal to forecast the future trend of prices of the pork industry, so that farmers and wholesalers may keep a grasp of market information accurately and avoid revenue loss.