新疆主要河流径流量变化的时空特征研究

以新疆主要26条河流为研究对象,依据1956年~2000年径流量资料,揭示主要河流径流量演变趋势,并基于地理信息系统(G IS)技术探讨河流径流量变化的时空特征。结果表明:1956年~1986年为新疆主要河流径流量的衰减期,而自1987年起,河流径流量呈明显的增加趋势;在空间分布上,1956年~1986年间,河流径流量的衰减主要发生在新疆北部,而河流径流量的微增则发生在新疆南部;1987年~2000年间,河流径流量的变化,在空间格局上发生了明显的逆转,河流径流量的增加主要发生在新疆北部,而河流径流量的微减则发生在新疆南部;在与新疆同期气象资料的分析对比后发现,降水量以及温度的明显增加,是导致1987年以后新疆主要河流径流量增加和其空间格局发生变化的主要原因。

Spatial-temporal characteristics of runoff variation of main rivers in Xinjiang

The tendency of runoff variation of the selected 26 rivers in Xinjiang were discussed using the observation data from 1956 to 2000,and the spatial-temporal characteristics of runoff variation of the same rivers were analyzed based on GIS technique.The results showed that it was the depletion period of runoff volume for the main rivers during 1956~1986,but it was shown there was increasing tendency of runoff volume of the main rivers since 1987s;In the spatial distribution,most of the decreases of runoff occurred in north XinJiang,and the delicate increasing processes were in south XinJiang during the period 1956~1986;However,there was a reverse change on runoff of the same rivers during the period 1987~2000,when the most remarkable increase was in north XinJiang and the slight decrease was in south Xinjiang.Analysis on the climate data of the same time showed that the variation of the precipitation and temperature were the more important driving factors for making the increasing tendency of runoff of the main rivers,and the changes on their spatial distribution since 1987s.