天津新型日光温室风灾风险评估及区划

为了评估天津新型日光温室风灾风险,本研究在近10年天津日光温室风灾灾情大量实地调查的基础上,根据自然灾害风险评估理论,构建日光温室风灾风险评估模型,计算温室不同等级风灾风险指数,并从站点、空间、时间3个尺度分析了温室风灾风险指数的变化。风险指数站点结果和空间分布结果均表明,宁河、汉沽、塘沽、武清、西青等地是遭受轻、中度风灾风险较高地区。天津新型日光温室遭受轻度风灾的风险最高(风险指数介于0.62~3.15),明显高于中度(风险指数介于0.0~0.61)及重度风灾,而其遭受重度风灾的风险几乎为0,这与天津较少发生8级以上(最大17.2 m/s以上)大风有关。近10年日光温室中、重度风灾风险指数极小且变化基本持平,而轻度风灾风险指数从2005年的2.70逐渐降低至2007年的2.0,2007—2014年始终保持在2.0附近波动。

Wind Disaster of New Type Solar Greenhouse in Tianjin: Risk Evaluation and Zoning Division

To evaluate wind disaster risk of new type solar greenhouse in Tianjin, based on the wind disaster investigation in field in recent 10 years, the wind disaster risk evaluation model of sola greenhouse was constructed according to nature disaster risk evaluation theory. Then, the authors calculated the risk index of different levels of wind disaster according to the evaluation model and analyzed its variation from meteorological stations, spatial scale and time scale, respectively. The risk index of the meteorological stations and space distribution result showed that: the risk index of mild and moderate wind disaster was higher in Ninghe, Hangu, Tanggu, Wuqing and Xiqing; the risk index of mild wind disaster (risk index between 0.62 and 3.15) was obviously higher than that of the moderate (risk index between 0.0 and 0.61) and severe disaster, and the risk index of severe disaster was nearly 0, because there was little wind disaster maximun with wind speed exceeding 17.2 m/s. In recent 10 years, the risk index of moderate and severe wind disaster basically hold the line. The risk index variation of mild wind disaster changes from 2.70 to 2.0 from 2005 to 2007 and fluctuates with 2.0 after 2007.