内蒙古通辽市2011年7月15—16日强对流降水过程分析

利用常规气象资料、卫星云图及数值预报产品等资料对2011年7月15—16日内蒙古通辽市出现的一次强对流降水天气过程进行了分析,结果表明,有利的大尺度环流、充沛的水汽条件、高空急流的存在、低空水汽的辐合、强的上升运动及不稳定能量的作用,是激发该次对流降水极为有利的因素。如果能通过对该次降水过程的总结,得出一些经验和指标,并应用于今后的预报工作当中,为今后的强对流降水预报提供参考依据,将会对提高预报准确率起到至关重要的作用。

Analysis on Severe Convective Precipitation Appeared in Tongliao City of Inner Mongolia on 15-16 July, 2011

Based on conventional meteorological data, satellite images and numerical weather prediction products and other information, a strong convective precipitation processes appeared in Tongliao City on 15-16 July, 2011 was analyzed. Result showed that enabling large-scale circulation, abundant water vapor, the existence of high-altitude jet, low-altitude water vapor convergence, strong upward motion and unstable energy role were extremely favorable factors to stimulate the convective precipitation. If some experience and indicators are summaried based on the precipitation process and then are used in forecasting in the future, they would provide some reference for strong convective precipitation forecast and play an important role to improve forecast accuracy.