Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations |
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Authors: | Long Stephen P Ainsworth Elizabeth A Leakey Andrew D B Nösberger Josef Ort Donald R |
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Institution: | Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, 1201 West Gregory Drive, Urbana, IL 61801, USA. stevel@life.uiuc.edu |
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Abstract: | Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration (CO2]) will offset these losses. The CO2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated CO2] enhanced yield by approximately 50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising CO2] will fully offset losses due to climate change. |
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