新菠萝灰粉蚧在中国目前及未来的潜在地理分布研究

新菠萝灰粉蚧(Dysmicoccus neobrevipes(Beardsley)),属同翅目(Homoptera)粉蚧科(Pseudococci-dae),被列为我国进境植物检疫性有害生物。该虫主要分布在美洲地区,特别是墨西哥到巴西之间,另外欧洲、非洲和亚洲也有少量分布。新菠萝灰粉蚧于1998年在我国首次发现,随后在广东省的部分地区大量暴发,造成严重经济损失。本研究利用CLIMEX 3.0与ArcGIS 9.3结合的方法研究该虫在我国目前以及未来的潜在地理分布。研究结果发现当前气候条件下,新菠萝灰粉蚧在我国的适生范围主要分布在18.3°N～27.3°N,包括海南、广东、广西、云南、贵州、台湾、香港、澳门、福建、湖南、江西、四川、重庆、浙江、西藏等省市,适生区面积占全国总面积的13.03%。其中整个海南、广东和广西的大部分地区、云南南部、福建东南部和台湾西南部高度适生。基于我国未来气候变化的预测结果显示,2020年,适生区向北扩展,面积将增加至全国总面积的18.97%;到2050年,适生区北界将向北移至32.8°N,上海、江苏和安徽南部均将成为适生区。鉴于新菠萝灰粉蚧在我国的潜在地理分布研究结果,应进一步加强针对该虫的检疫、根除措施,完善疫情监测体系,预防其新的进入和扩散。

The current and future potential geographic distribution of Dysmicoccus neobrevipes in China

Dysmicoccus neobrevipes(Beardsley) is regulated as the import quarantine pest in China,which belongs to Homoptera,Pseudococcidae.This species distributes widely in the Americas,range from Mexico to Brazil,with few records from Europe,Africa and Asia,causing damage lose.D.neobrevipes has been found in China since 1998,booming in some parts of Guangdong province.The current and future potential geographic distribution of D.neobrevipes was studied in this paper by using CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3.The results indicated that the suitable areas of this species in China distribute between 18.3°N～27.3°N based on the current climate,accounting for 13.03% of national areas,including Hainan,Guangdong,Guangxi,Yunnan,Guizhou,Taiwan,Hongkong,Macao,Fujian,Hunan,Jiangxi,Sichuan,Chongqing,Zhejiang,Xizang,etc.Within it,Hainan,most parts of Guangdong and Guangxi,south of Yunnan,southeast of Fujian and southwest of Taiwan were predicted as the optimal region.While based on the future climate,it predicted that,the suitable area would expand northwards in 2020,accounting for 18.97% of total areas in China.In 2050,the northern boundary of suitable areas will northwards to 32.8°N,Shanghai,south of Jiangsu and Anhui will be included.In order to prevent the new introduction and spread of D.neobrevipes,the quarantine,eradication and monitor measures should be further enhanced more in China.