灰色系统理论在果树产地气象生态适宜性评估中的应用初探

针对果树经济栽培中的适地适栽问题，为使其达到高产、稳产、优质的生产效果而提供理论参考。笔者应用灰色关联分析法，以广东省从化等7个县（市）淮枝荔枝主要产地连续20年（1961-1982年）的产量资料和相应年份的气象资料为材料，对淮枝荔枝产地气象生态适宜性进行评估。结果表明，与“理想产地”气象生态条件相似的产地排列顺序为：从化＞惠东＞花县＞罗定＞深圳＞斗门＞惠来，从化淮枝荔枝产地与“理想产地”最为接近（r1=0.9418），最适宜栽培淮枝荔枝。灰色关联度分析可以定量地评估淮枝荔枝产地气象生态适宜性，其结果与各产地的实际一致。为客观评价荔枝产地气象生态适宜性、进行适地适栽提供了一种计算简单、结果直观、准确可靠的分析方法。

Preliminary Study on Comprehensive Evaluation of the Weather Ecology Suitability in Huaizhi Litchi Production Area with the Gray System Theory

In order to study on comprehensive evaluation of the weather ecology suitability in fruit field,based on the output materials in the continuous 20 years(1961-1982) and the weather materials in the relate years from the major Huaizhi litchi fields of Conghua and 6 other counties in Guangdong Province,the feasibility of the application of the relational grade analysis of Grey System Theory to the weather ecology suitableness of 7 Huaizhi litchi fields,including Conghua County was evaluated.The results showed ...