农产品市场价格短期预测研究进展

 论文系统概述了近百年来有关国内外农产品市场价格短期预测在理论、方法、实践应用等方面取得的进展，指出主要研究方法的优缺点，并对农产品市场价格短期预测方法研究的特点进行了总结，对今后研究的发展方向进行了展望。研究认为，随着数理统计学、计量经济学、模糊数学、神经网络等理论的发展及方法的广泛应用，目前在农产品市场价格短期预测领域已形成了众多模型，其中主要定量分析方法可概括为四大类，即计量经济预测法、数理统计预测法、智能分析法和组合模型法。在未来的一段时间内，农产品市场价格短期预测将呈现出以定量分析方法占主导、智能化组合化模型逐渐增多、分位数回归模型引入到农产品市场价格短期预测并形成趋势等发展特征。

Advances in Research of Short-Term Forecasting Methods of Agricultural Product Price

This paper reviewed the progress in the theories,methods and their application of short-term forecasting of agricultural product prices at home and abroad.Advantages and disadvantages of the existing research methods were comparatively analyzed and the future research directions were prospected.A conclusion drawn from the research was that the quantitative forecasting method could be divided into econometric forecasting,statistics forecasting,intelligent analysis and combination model as the wide applicatio...